S&P/Experian Credit Default Indices Third Consecutive Monthly Increase in National Default Rates in November
Increase in Default Rates for all five MSAs in November
New York, December 20, 2011 – Data through November 2011, released today by S&P Indices and Experian for the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices, a comprehensive measure of changes in consumer credit defaults, showed that first mortgage and bank card default rates rose to 2.17% and 4.91% in November, from 2.08% and 4.85% in October, respectively. Second mortgage and auto loans default rates decreased slightly; second mortgages moved down from 1.29% in October to 1.26% in November, and auto loans from 1.22% to 1.17%. The increases in first mortgage and bank card rates, however, caused the national composite to rise from 2.15% to 2.22%
“As we indicated last month, the weight of first mortgage default rates tends to drive the trend in the national composite,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee for S&P Indices. “First mortgage default rates rose for the third consecutive month, leading the same pattern for the composite. Since August, first mortgage default rates have risen from 1.92% to the 2.17% November rate, or 0.25 percentage points. The composite has also risen in each of those three months, from 2.04% to 2.22%. These figures are not too surprising given some of the weak housing statistics we have seen over the past few months. We also saw an increase in bank card default rates in November; but the October decline was so large that the November 4.91% is still well below the default rates we saw in late 2009 and early 2010. Auto loans and second mortgages saw drops in their default rates in November.
“Looking at the regions, all five saw their rates increase. Los Angeles saw the largest increase, moving from 2.15% in October to 2.53% in November, which is a fairly significant 0.39 percentage points. Miami was not far behind, moving from 4.16% to 4.47%. These are two markets where we have seen some recent weakness in other housing statistics. Again, while there may be some cause for concern if this upward trend continues. Other recent housing statistics point to the same relative weakness, so these statistics align with the overall current picture of the economy.”
All five major Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) reported in this release showed increases in default rates in November. Los Angeles had the highest default rates increase among these MSAs from 2.15% in October to 2.53% in November. Miami, Chicago and New York increased to 4.47%, 2.84% and 2.21% in November, from 4.16%, 2.64% and 2.09% in October, respectively. Chicago, Los Angeles and New York have all seen at least three consecutive months of increasing default rates. Dallas default rate moved up slightly from 1.30% in October to 1.38% in November.
The table below summarizes the November 2011 results for the S&P/Experian Credit Default Indices. These data are not seasonally adjusted and are not subject to revision.
S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices National Indices
November 2011 Index Level
October 2011 Index Level
November 2010 Index Levels
The table below provides the S&P/Experian Consumer Default Composite Indices for the five MSAs:
Metropolitan Statistical Area November 2011 Index Level October 2011 Index level November 2010 Index Level New York 2.21 2.09 3.04 Chicago 2.84 2.64 3.34 Dallas 1.38 1.30 2.20 Los Angeles 2.53 2.15 3.26 Miami 4.47 4.16 10.27
Data through November 2011
Metropolitan Statistical Area
November 2011 Index Level
October 2011 Index level
November 2010 Index Level
Jointly developed by S&P Indices and Experian, the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices are published on the third Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the default experience of consumer balances in four key loan categories: auto, bankcard, first mortgage lien and second mortgage lien. The Indices are calculated based on data extracted from Experian's consumer credit database. This database is populated with individual consumer loan and payment data submitted by lenders to Experian every month. Experian's base of data contributors includes leading banks and mortgage companies, and covers approximately $11 trillion in outstanding loans sourced from 11,500 lenders.
For more information, please visit: www.consumercreditindices.standardandpoors.com.
For more information:
Chairman of the Index Committee
Experian Public Relations
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