12 September, London, UK – The Isle of Wight will see the biggest increase in lung disease and other smoking-related disorders in England between now and 2020 with cases up by a quarter, according to new research by Experian Public Sector in association with the British Lung Foundation.

The South Coast and West Country will see some of the largest rises in admissions for lung disease in England over the next nine years and local healthcare organisations will need to budget for higher treatment costs, the research shows.  Torquay, the Isle of Wight and Barnstaple are all expected to see dramatic rises of at least 16% in admissions for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), an umbrella term for a range of lung diseases including emphysema and chronic bronchitis.

The research, which uses new methodology and data to forecast future health needs and costs, has been conducted to help Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) and Clinical Commissioning Groups deliver earlier intervention strategies and target more effective prevention messages. The research forecasts future COPD admissions and costs per head for COPD by English town up to 2020 and for PCT area up to 2015.

Emily Sparks, Director of Health at Experian Public Sector, said: “Our research highlights dramatic differences in predicted rates and associated treatment costs for a range of lung diseases across the country.  This underlines the importance of understanding how healthcare provision needs to be tailored to local communities.  Harnessing this data will enable health care professionals to proactively target their resources to meet local needs while boosting health and wellbeing at a local level.”

The research shows that in 2015 Southampton PCT is forecast to have the highest cost of COPD admissions per thousand head of population (£10,643) which adds up to an overall cost of over £2.5 million in treatment of COPD.  This is followed by Knowsley (£9,175) and Liverpool (£8,901). By contrast, PCT areas forecast to have the fewest admissions for COPD and cost least in 2015 are Richmond & Twickenham (£2,182), Kingston (£2,365) and Berkshire West (£2,400).

The Isle of Wight is set to see the biggest increase in lung disease, with a 25.1% increase predicted by 2020.  This is closely followed by Oswestry (23.5%) and Cirencester (19.2%).  Conversely, Bootle is expected to face the highest cost by 2020: £10,072 per thousand head of the population.  This is followed by Barnsley (£8,817 per thousand head) and Southampton (£8,681 per thousand head).  By contrast, towns forecast to have the lowest cost for COPD in 2020 are Richmond in London (£1,997), St Albans (£1,823) and Wimbledon (£1,793). These areas have also been forecasted to have some of the lowest increase in admissions for lung disease in 2020. 

Experian conducted the forecast using its customer insight proprietary tool, Mosaic Public Sector, and a range of public data sources including Hospital Episode Statistics (HES), the Health Survey for England and the Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). Scenarios were created to predict how a reduction in smokers would impact on the future cost of COPD. In addition, Experian worked with the British Lung Foundation to understand the population profile of those most likely to respond to interventions in Primary Care and reconciled this with current smokers..

The British Lung Foundation (BLF) has used Experian’s customer insight and forecasting to target localised interventions (lung function tests) in areas where the costs and rate of increase in COPD are predicted be the highest. In just two years the BLF has tested over 7,200 people for abnormal lung function in England at 12 specifically targeted locations, with 19.5% of those tested being referred to their GP for further tests. When the BLF has compared its targeted approach to untargeted campaigns it has seen a 300% uplift in attendances in the most at risk populations. Through early identification of COPD, potential savings to the NHS from these events alone are estimated at over £300,000 per year.

Katherine Leach, Head of National Projects at the British Lung Foundation, said: " We are urging Primary Care Trusts in retirement hotspots to adopt the recommendations set out in the Government’s recently published Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease outcomes strategy to help reduce admissions.  The British Lung Foundation is working to support Primary Care Trusts by offering lung function testing events in their area and by providing self-management plans to help patients better manage their own condition."

Emily Sparks concluded: “ By understanding the types of people more likely to be current smokers and how this will change over time, resources can be targeted effectively down to the individual to drive behaviour change and reduce cost for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease even further.”


For further information please contact:

Bruno Rost, Experian, 07967567012; bruno.rost@uk.experian.com



Experian’s new forecasting model draws data from various Experian proprietary and public data sources including Mosaic Public Sector, Hospital Episode Statistics (HES), the Health Survey for England and Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). Its bottom-up approach builds on units of around 750 households with the flexibility to meet the varied sized GP Consortia boundaries.  The COPD forecast map (below) was developed using a range of future scenarios to 2020 with the most important risk factor to COPD being smoking. Different scenarios of COPD cost depend on levels of intervention and assumptions around numbers of future smokers. Scenarios can be adjusted to reflect levels of intervention at any stage.

With guidance from the British Lung Foundation, Experian has used its model to forecast and map Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD).  COPD is a lung disease normally associated with smoking; it is the second most common reason for emergency admissions (after heart attacks) and one of the most costly inpatient conditions treated by the NHS. [1]

The cost of COPD admissions reflects areas where there is forecast to be a higher total smoking population, it typically follows areas experiencing greater levels of deprivation alongside a greater total aging population.

MosaicTM Public Sector was used to segment the proportion of COPD patients that are current smokers.  MosaicTM Public Sector segments 146 Mosaic person types aggregated into 69 household types and ultimately 15 main groups to identify individuals, households or postcodes that are as similar as possible to each other and as different as possible to any other group.

Both PCT and Town forecasting models break down the population for COPD admissions by heavy, light and moderate smokers, along with ex-regular smokers and those that have never smoked.  The benefit of using this approach is that forecasts can be tweaked to reflect results of targeted interventions.  By understanding the impact that smoking cessation interventions have on the current smoking population a more accurate picture of cost and demand can be predicted.

Tables and maps available on request: email bruno.rost@uk.experian.com

About Experian
Experian is the leading global information services company, providing data and analytical tools to clients in more than 80 countries. The company helps businesses to manage credit risk, prevent fraud, target marketing offers and automate decision making. Experian also helps individuals to check their credit report and credit score, and protect against identity theft.

Experian plc is listed on the London Stock Exchange (EXPN) and is a constituent of the FTSE 100 index. Total revenue for the year ended 31 March 2011 was US$4.2 billion. Experian employs approximately 15,000 people in 41 countries and has its corporate headquarters in Dublin, Ireland, with operational headquarters in Nottingham, UK; California, US; and São Paulo, Brazil. 

For more information, visit
http://www.experianplc.com .




[1] Cost per admission estimated to be £1,816